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Academic Journal
Supply Chain

“Robustness of Conditional Moments: An Application to Premium Calculation for Reinsurance Treaties”

In this study, the tail probability of a class of distributions commonly used in assessing the severity of insurance losses was examined. Without specifying any particular distribution, the use of an algebraic functional form Cx to approximate the tail behavior of the distributions in the class was demonstrated. Norwegian fire insurance data were examined, and the algebraic functional form was applied to derive the expected loss of a reinsurance treaty that covers all losses exceeding a retention limit. It was shown that (1) the expected loss is insensitive to the parameter á for a high retention limit (e.g., a catastrophe treaty), and (2) with a low retention limit (e.g., a largest claim treaty), a reliable estimate of the parameter á and a sound judgment on the maximum potential loss of the treaty could provide useful and defensible summary statistics for pricing the treaty. Thus, when dealing with the losses of certain reinsurance treaties, it was concluded that knowledge of a specific probability distribution is not critical, and the summary statistics derived from the model are robust with respect to a large class of loss distributions.
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Academic Journal
Supply Chain

“Robustness of Tail Index Estimation”

The implementation of the Hill estimator, which estimates the heaviness of the tail of a distribution, requires a choice of the number of extreme observations in the tails, $r$, from a sample of size $n$, where $2 \leq r+1 \leq n$. This article is concerned with a robust procedure of choosing an optimal $r$. Thus, an estimation procedure, $\delta_s$, based on the idea of spacing statistics, $H^{(r)}$, is developed. The proposed decision rule for choosing $r$ under the squared error loss is found to be a simple function of the sample size. The proposed rule is then illustrated across a wide range of data, including insurance claims, currency exchange rate returns, and city size.
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Academic Journal
Supply Chain

“Strategic Supplier Portfolio Management: Does Top Management Team Composition Matter?”

Operations and Supply Chain Management are intrinsically linked fields. However, some firms appoint both operations managers (OM) as well as supply chain managers (SCM)to their top management teams. We investigate this phenomena by focusing on the impact that the presence of an OM may have on the firm as opposed to the presence of a SCM. To do this, we consider the firm's strategic supplier portfolio management. Strategic supplier portfolio management (SSPM) decisions impact the firm's long-term performance and are thus the responsibility of the firm’s top management team (TMT). Grounding our research in the logic of Upper Echelons Theory (UET), this paper develops hypotheses that predict how supply chain and operations managers on a firm’s TMT affect two key aspects of it’s SSPM – the geographic sourcing strategy and the supplier relationship strategy.
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